The Reverse Forecast: your daily map of what not to do, drawn from the day’s most timely risks in markets, tech, and beyond.

The Reverse Forecast — August 22, 2025

• Don’t chase a pre-Powell bounce. Futures are green but breadth is wobbly as traders wait on Jackson Hole; even the “year-end target raises” crowd is hedging on valuations. Treat any early pop as noise until we hear the tone on rates. (Bloomberg, Reuters, AP)
• Don’t delay your Apple updates. A zero-day (CVE-2025-43300) in Image I/O is under active exploitation; CISA added it to the KEV list and Apple pushed iOS/iPadOS 18.6.2 and macOS fixes. Update now to dodge “malicious image” drive-bys. (CISA, Apple, BleepingComputer)
• Don’t underestimate East Coast surf today. Erin is sliding out to sea, but high surf and rip currents are still chewing up beaches from the Mid-Atlantic to New England; coastal flood advisories persist in spots. (NHC, NWS Mount Holly, AP)
• Don’t YOLO weekly NVDA contracts. Unusual flow is heavy into today’s expirations while implied vol chops around—prime conditions for premium decay to eat impatient traders. If you’re not managing Greeks, this is a hard pass. (Market Chameleon, OptionCharts)
• Don’t “tough it out” in the Southwest heat. Extreme heat warnings continue around Phoenix with dangerous highs and poor overnight relief—schedule errands early, hydrate, and cool down rooms. (NWS Phoenix)

💬 What’s your take? Yesterday’s Apple patch warning aged well—did you update, or are you rolling the dice? Which of today’s “Don’ts” is most likely to save you time, money, or a headache? Drop your “wish I’d known” moments in the comments, and if you’re new here, browse our recent Reverse Forecast pieces for patterns we’ve nailed and the ones that surprised us.

What is We’re Being Robbed all about? Read about our mission here.